Edmonton Eskimos 2008 Cfl Preview

Edmonton Eskimos 2008 CFL Preview

 

The City of Edmonton is known as the City of Champions, due to the success of the Edmonton Eskimos and Edmonton Oilers of prior years. However, the Edmonton Eskimos were anything but champions last season, as they missed the playoffs for the first time in 34 years. One thing with the Edmonton Eskimos, they’ve always had successful QB’s in their organization and Ricky Ray will need to stay healthy if the Eskimos plan to make a playoff run this season, as Jason Maas and Tyler Donovan of Wisconsin are the back ups. From a bookmaker’s point of view, it’s Russian roulette putting a line out on the Esks the last few seasons, as they’ve been a Jekyll and Hyde type team, as they show up at home, but disappear on the road. In fact, over the last 3 seasons, the Eskimos are 16-11-1 SU at home and 10-19 SU on the road. From a bookmaker’s point of view, their biggest task is adjusting the line after the Eskimos come up with a big win and scored 30 points or more in their last home, as the Eskimos are 8-15 SU on the road in this spot the last 5 years.

 

If you’re looking for a good spot to play against the Edmonton Eskimos this season, I would suggest you try to catch them as a Road Favorite, while coming off a home win, as they are 3-7-0 ATS in this situation the last 5 years. The rational behind this thinking believes the Esks are getting better as a team and have turned the corner. Plus, from a point spread point of view, they’ve impressed the bookmakers enough to make them a favorite on the road in the next game. However, the Eskimos have been inconsistent the last few years and they are a good go-against team in this situation in my view.

 

The bright spot about the Edmonton Eskimos is their QB Ricky Ray and they should concentrate on getting him some help. The Eskimos defense has not really lived up to it’s potential and they have one of the worst secondary in the league. The Eskimos have no problem putting up points, but it’s their defense that allows too many against. The Eskimos have played in the most games that went OVER the total the last 5 years, as the OVER is 49-46-1 for Edmonton. In fact, Edmonton and Winnipeg are the only two teams to have the O/U favor the UNDER the last 5 years, as every other teams have seen more games go UNDER the posted total.

Edmonton Eskimos 2007 Season Stats

Straight up Record: 5-12-1 SU

Against the Spread Record: 7-11-0 ATS

O/U/P: 8 OVERS 10 UNDERS 0 PUSH

 

Home Record:

Straight up Record: 3-5-1 SU

ATS Record: 3-5-1 ATS

O/U/P Record: 4-5-0 (O/U/P)

 

Road Record:

Straight up Record: 2-7 SU

ATS Record: 4-5 (4-5)

O/U/P Record: 4-5-0 (O/U/P)

 

 

Last 2 Years: 14-22-0 (ATS) 12-23-1 (SU) 17-18-1 (O/U/P)

Last 3 Years: 24-31-2 (ATS) 26-30-1 (SU) 27-29-1 (O/U/P)

Last 4 Years: 33-41-2 (ATS) 35-40-1 (SU) 38-37-1 (O/U/P)

Last 5 Years: 46-46-4 (ATS) 50-45-1 (SU) 49-46-1 (O/U/P)

 

Vs. Division Opponents since 1996:

69-68-6 (ATS) 79-64 (SU) 70-72-1 (O/U/P)

Value Index

The Edmonton Eskimos play on a grass surface at Commonwealth Stadium and you would think they would have a hard time adjusting to playing in a dome stadium like BC Place and the Rogers Center in Toronto. However, it’s the complete opposite from a pointspread point of view, as the Eskimos are 21-10-0 ATS combined in both venues. If you’re looking for value when you’re betting a game that involves the Edmonton Eskimos in Domes, you may want to consider them as away dogs in B.C. and Toronto. In fact, since 1996, the Eskimos are 9-3-1 ATS vs. the Argonauts at the Rogers Centre. Plus, keep an eye out for when the Eskimos are an away team and the total is between 43.5 to 46.0; as the OVER is 7-1-0 for the Eskimos in this spot. Perhaps you might see this total when Ricky Ray is out and Maas or Donovan will get the nod vs. a stingy defense like the Argos.

 

Here’s how the Eskimos did in certain betting circumstances since 1996.

 

Underdog: 51-43-4 (ATS) 38-60 (SU) 52-45-1 (O/U/P)

Favorite: 66-77-4 (ATS) 93-53-1 (SU) 71-76-0 (O/U/P)

Home Dog: 9-9-1 (ATS) 7-12 (SU) 10-9-0 (O/U/P)

Home Fave: 42-47-3 (ATS) 62-29-1 (SU) 44-48-0 (O/U/P)

Road Dog: 35-29-3 (ATS) 24-43 (SU) 35-31-1 (O/U/P)

Road Fave: 17-25-1 (ATS) 24-19 (SU) 20-23-0 (O/U/P)

 

Edmonton Eskimos Head to Head Record vs. Each CFL Team

 

Nothing really positives stands out for the Eskimos in their head to head clashes with the rest of the CFL teams, but their lack of success vs. the Hamilton Tiger Cats is the stat that catches my eye. Let’s face it, the Hamilton Tiger Cats have been a bad franchise since 1996, as they’ve only had 3 winning season and 8 losing ones with a 9-9-1 season in 2004. Either the Hamilton Tiger Cats brought their “A” game vs. the Eskimos, or Edmonton took the Tabbies lightly. Nevertheless, there’s no reason why a successful franchise like the Eskimos should have a .500 record vs. a franchise who’s struggled since ’96. In fact, the Hamilton Tiger Cats are 4-0 SU and ATS at home vs. the Eskimos the last 4 years.  That goes to show you how bad Edmonton has been!

 

Team by Team Breakdown:

 

Vs. Calgary: 20-23-0 (ATS) 23-20 (SU) 20-23-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Saskatchewan: 15-19-3 (ATS) 21-16 (SU) 21-16-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. B.C. Lions: 22-15-2 (ATS) 20-19 (SU) 21-16-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Montreal: 13-13-1 (ATS) 14-13 (SU) 13-14-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Hamilton: 8-16-0 (ATS) 12-12 (SU) 13-11-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Toronto: 12-12-0 (ATS) 9-16-0 (SU) 10-15-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Winnipeg: 13-14-1 (ATS) 16-11-1 (SU) 15-13-0 (O/U/P)

 

 

Look ahead and Letdown Angles

 

One of the key angles of handicapping football games is the Look ahead and let down factor. Teams tend to overlook their current game when they have a big game on deck, or they tend to have an emotional let down after a high emotion win or game. It’s very hard in football to duplicate a great outing, so this is where most cappers find good value in betting football games.

 

Here’s some betting angle to consider when betting for and/or against the Edmonton Eskimos.

 

The Edmonton Eskimos are 17-7 SU after playing the Montreal Alouettes since 1996.

The Edmonton Eskimos are 16-8-1 ATS before playing the Toronto Argonauts since 1996.

The UNDER is 22-14-1 for the Eskimos before playing the Saskatchewan roughriders since ’96.

 

Comment: One of the numbers I take from the above stats is the 22-14-1 towards the UNDER for the Eskimos before they play the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Using one of the College Football angles when a top division one team like Michigan gets ready to play a lower ranked school like Eastern Michigan, maybe the Eskimos don’t want to show too much on offense before the next game and that’s why allot of the games have gone UNDER the total for the Esks before they play Saskatchewan. Let’s face it, these are two division teams and sometimes the 2 points in the standings is enough to hide schemes and plays on both sides of the ball.

 

 

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